There are plenty of story lines we can discuss that won't help us handicap the Super Bowl very much, but since stubborn and animosity-filled debate is kind of our thing, we're going to do it.
1st, We can talk about the opening line (SEA -2.5) compared to where the line is currently (pk, NE -1, and even NE -2 on Bovada..). Is this significant? I've said "not really" for a few days now since there is so much time and only the 7th and 8th key numbers were actually crossed by most books. I seem to have some experienced and informed support, too. While I'd obviously love to have +2 rather than -1 as a potential NE backer, the difference shouldn't sway many. Anyone dealing with a -2 on Bovada? What are you leaning towards?
2nd, we can discuss DEFLATE-GATE!! Is this REALLY story? Maybe... With cheating, you want to look for intent & reasoning, as well as outcome. Those don't pass the smell test for me, other than having Evil Bill involved, especially given the news that 11 of 12 of the balls were reported to be deflated. Let's break this story down from a practical perspective.
So, Did the Pats intend to play with deflated balls? Unknown as of yet. Did it make sense for NE to make it so the Pats and Colts played deflated balls, assuming that some people say you use the same balls? Not really. Did anyone really gain an unfair advantage? Assuming no voodoo, No. Would the outcome of the game changed much? No.
Will this be something Pats-haters use forever? Yes, undoubtedly. When you go to 9 of 14 AFC Championship games you'll always have haters. But, since my loyalty lies with the almighty dollar (after KC), I'll continue supporting Evil Bill - winner of all the monies.
Good luck and good gambling. Stay tuned.
Loving some chalk tonight.
Valpo (-9.5) - 20: Youngstown can't really play defense....
Iowa St (-10) - 20: Iowa State at home is a great bet. As long as there isn't a let down after beating KU, they should have a wire to wire winner here.
UK (-22) - 30: Lay the points. Take the Cats.
If anyone wants to join me in a Tom Brady love fest, start reading this article from Simmons.
I teased GB to +14.5 with NE pick'em and I also parlayed GB +7.5 with Pats -7. For what it is worth, I think there is zero chance the Patriots lose. Brady is the King. Belichick is a stud. New England is the type of team that can win going away after rushing for 40+ times or after throwing for 40+ times. They are so versatile. Andrew Luck has lost by an average of around 19 points (couldn't track down the stat) when facing the Pats. Pats win going away, just praying GB holds on. Their lack of kill shot has been concerning. Good luck, all.
This week sure feels like it is taking a while to get done with...
I hope that wasn't the last time I see Peyton Manning play football. I also hope I never have to see Peyton Manning play football that way again. I'm not going to whine about the Bryant call either, I'm just thankful it didn't screw up the cover at least. It would've been great to get one more Manning v Brady. I also think Dallas would've challenged the Seahawks more than the Packers. We've all seen what happens to the Packers vs tough defenses on the road. Add in a hobbled Rodgers and Sunday's early game could be over quickly. That's for a later discussion, though.
OSU +6 - 30: Urban Meyer. Let's see what happens.
Yesterday's Pats game was incredible. One of the better playoff games I've seen. If you were following us on Twitter, you'd know we were pouring it on the in game lines. If you guys do bet online, or want to sign up for Bovada, I highly suggest you start watching the In Game lines. The Pats got to +140 ML at one point, the Panthers got to +14.5, and there were numerous hedge opportunities all over the place. It is the next step in gambling. Dabble with the "what will the next play be" all you want, but you should add in game hedging and line expansion to your gambling arsenal. Plus, it is stupidly fun. On to today.
Cowboys (+6) - 100: The Packers are great at home. There is no denying that. But they've always been susceptible to good offenses. I think you'll see something special out of the Cowboys offensive line today. They were challenged and came up a little wanting versus Detroit. They'll bounce back in a good way against a much less talented front. The biggest question mark will be Aaron's calf injury. He has all the tools to be a stationary pocket passer, so it isn't a huge detriment, but it does make scheming and covering the Packers skill players a bit easier, assuming Rodgers is hobbled. Bottom line, I think 6 points is too much to give the Cowboys offense when they are playing the Packers defense.
Over 51 -150: Stats have shown that cold weather DOES NOT decrease scoring. I don't know if these teams combine for 6 drives that don't result in points of some kind. Dallas averages 34.4 ppg on the road. Green Bay averages 39.7 ppg at home. Both defense are middle of the pack DVOA but top 5 in offense.
I mentioned that I have Pats -.5 & Broncos -1 in a tease for 200 yesterday. This is because I think Indy will be in some real trouble moving the football today. The Broncos have a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. The Colts can't run the football. They're going to ask Luck to throw the football 45+ times. I try not to draw too much from their Week 1 match up when looking at this game since so much has changed since then. However, I do like to note how even the run/pass calls were. 36 pass against 32 rushing attempts for the Denver Broncos. That mix helped them open up a 24 point lead and it was pretty much done from there despite what the final score said. All of this said, 8 is a big number to lay. I haven't decided if I'll tack on anything on top of the teaser.